Tier 4 · QuantFree
Bayesian Thinking in Finance
Update The Past
10 modules~83 min totalVerifiable certificate on completion
Syllabus
01Bayes' Theorem and the PosteriorMath
10 min02Conjugate Priors and Bayesian UpdatingMath
10 min03Bayesian Inference for the Mean (Shrinkage)Math
11 min04The Kalman FilterMath
11 min05Bayes Factors and Model SelectionMath
10 min06Bayes' Theorem
6 min07Bayesian Portfolio Management
6 min08The Kalman Filter
6 min09Hierarchical Models and Shrinkage
7 min10Bayes Factors and Model Selection
6 minFrom Module 1 — read a sample
P(A|B) = P(B|A) × P(A) / P(B). In words: to find the probability of A given B, start with your prior belief P(A), multiply by how likely B is if A is true, and divide by how likely B is overall. It's how you update beliefs with new evidence.
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