The Off-Ramp
Knowing When to Leave
Syllabus
From Module 1 — read a sample
The decision to exit a position is not just about whether the price is right — it is about whether waiting changes the expected value in your favor. Private equity exits are governed by two clocks: the fund's life and the market cycle. When multiples are high and the business is performing, every additional quarter of holding introduces new risks that the current offer already prices out. The "one more investment cycle" argument is a cognitive trap: management always believes the next round of capex will deliver outsized returns, but buyers price the company on today's evidence, not tomorrow's promise.
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